Crash Risk · Stress Building
Elevated vulnerability
Stage: Stress Building · Confirmation developing
As of 23 Oct 2026, 12:27 am · config v0
Crash Vulnerability
Elevated
▲ 6.1 / 24h
Crash Confirmation
Developing
To reach Market Deterioration
- VIX expansion (sub-score 42 → 60+)
- equity weakness to synchronize (sub-score 29 → 55+)
Trajectory
━ vulnerability ┈ confirmation
The market, right now
Every input the engines read, with its move and a traffic light against the same thresholds.
| Indicator | Latest | Δ 1d | Δ 5d | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.79% | +0.02 | 0.00 | Elevated |
| US 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.95% | -0.19 | -0.14 | Elevated |
| US 30-Year Treasury Yield | 5.29% | -0.15 | -0.14 | Elevated |
| VIX | 19.65 | +2.97 | +3.19 | Watch |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.61 | -0.17 | -0.39 | Normal |
| USD/JPY | 156.81 | -1.46 | -1.15 | Normal |
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | $113.43 | +4.61 | +7.51 | High |
| HYG (high-yield credit ETF) | $77.11 | +0.13 | -0.03 | Elevated |
| SPY (S&P 500 ETF) | $762.38 | -10.71 | -9.41 | Watch |
| QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) | $703.37 | -21.83 | -24.63 | Elevated |
| IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) | $276.11 | -0.37 | +1.03 | Elevated |
The seven engines
- Rates100severelevel 100 · velocity 10034% of vulnerability
US10Y 5.00% — severe · US30Y 5.32% — high
- Oil / Inflation79highlevel 79 · velocity 7313% of vulnerability
Brent $112
- Credit58elevatedlevel 58 · velocity 519% of vulnerability
HYG 3.6% off its high
- Geopolitical49watchlevel 49 · velocity 04% of vulnerability
Indian Killed , 3 Injured in Attacks on Saudi Facilities , Says MEA After Owaisi seeks Safety of Pilgrims
- FX / Carry46watchlevel 4 · velocity 8112% of vulnerability
USD/JPY 157.1
- Volatility42watchlevel 36 · velocity 4611% of vulnerability
VIX 18.4
- Equity29normallevel 12 · velocity 217% of vulnerability
equities steady
What’s changed
- ▼ 2s10s spread -17 bps — 2s10s spread
- ▼ 2s30s spread -14 bps — 2s30s spread
- ▲ VIX +1.7 (+9.2%) — VIX 18.4 — still below the stress threshold
- ▼ US 10-Year Treasury Yield -15 bps — 10-year at 5.00%
- ▲ Brent Crude ($/bbl) +2.9 (+2.6%) — Brent $112
- ▲ HYG / QQQ +2.2% — HYG / QQQ
- ▼ QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) -15.6 (-2.2%) — QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)
- ▼ US 30-Year Treasury Yield -12 bps — 30-year at 5.32%
Active signals (1)
- Oil Shockinactive
$112 (+6 in 5d) · trigger: Brent +$12/5d or > $120
- Long-End Yield Stresssevere
US30Y 5.32% · trigger: US30Y > 5.25% or curve inverted
- Yen Carry Warninginactive
USD/JPY 157.1 (yen +0.9 in 5d) · trigger: USD/JPY down > 3.0 in 5d
- Credit Divergenceinactive
not present · trigger: HYG/equity down > 2.0% (20d) while equity up
- Volatility Expansioninactive
VIX 18.4 (+1.9 in 5d) · trigger: VIX +6 in 5d
- Equity Breakdowninactive
SPY 1.8% off its high · trigger: SPY drawdown > 5% or all-three below 200DMA
- Synchronized Risk-Offinactive
1 of 3 conditions · trigger: ≥ 2 of: all three falling, all below 50DMA, small caps lagging
- Active Deleveraginginactive
not confirmed · trigger: credit divergence + (synchronized equity fall or vol expansion)
Every score is reproducible from the inputs on this snapshot (config v0). Market research and monitoring only — not personalised investment advice, and it does not predict a crash. Geopolitical risk is scored from structured events; when none are recorded it reads zero.